The low-altitude economy policy is gaining momentum in China, potentially driving a rapid surge in the carbon fiber market.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the scale of China's low-altitude economy exceeded 500 billion yuan in 2023. The Civil Aviation Administration of China projects that the market size of China's low-altitude economy will reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, with expectations to hit 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035.
The term "low-altitude" is defined as the airspace within a vertical distance of 1000 meters from the ground directly below, which can extend to 3000 meters depending on regional characteristics and practical needs. The low-altitude economy relies on this airspace for economic activities, encompassing civil manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as multi-scenario low-altitude flight activities for carrying passengers, cargo, and other operations, along with the related fields that are stimulated and driven by these activities.
Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles are one of the key carriers of the low-altitude economy, offering significant advantages over traditional aircraft in terms of flight safety, environmental friendliness, and comfort experience. Carbon fiber, known for its lightweight and high-strength properties, is the primary material for eVTOL's main body structure. Its application in the aerospace field is well-established, and it effectively reduces the weight of the aircraft while ensuring material strength, enhancing the performance and economic benefits of the aircraft, and achieving substitution for traditional metal materials.
Mainstream eVTOL design schemes utilize carbon fiber as the primary material for the main body structure. According to data from Stratview cited by the China Composites Industry Association, over 90% of the composite materials used in air mobility vehicles are carbon fiber, with the remaining approximately 10% being glass fiber. From the application scenarios of composite materials, about 75-80% are used for structural parts and propulsion systems, followed by internal applications such as beams and seat structures accounting for 12-14%, and battery systems, avionics, and other minor applications accounting for 8-12%. Leading domestic eVTOL manufacturers, including EHang, Xiaopeng Huitian, and AutoFlight, all incorporate carbon fiber composite materials in their aircraft structures, with Xiaopeng Huitian's Traveler X2 also using carbon fiber composite materials for its rotor blades and landing gear.
The China Composites Industry Association states that eVTOLs can use composite materials accounting for more than 70% of their own weight, with over 90% of these composite materials being carbon fiber. Assuming that the weight of composite materials per single eVTOL accounts for 70% of the weight of its aircraft structure, and the proportion of carbon fiber composite materials in all composite materials is 90%, with a carbon fiber to resin ratio of 7:3, the demand for carbon fiber per single eVTOL is estimated to be between 97-363kg.
Global aviation data consulting agency Cirium's data indicates that as of May 2023, the global future air traffic field has orders for approximately 8000 units, with 1700 being business electric aircraft, and the rest being eVTOL orders, totaling about 6300 units. Assuming all orders are released by 2030, it is expected to bring an incremental demand of 600-2300 tons for carbon fiber.
